Since July/August of 2008 the JPY has made considerable gains across the board against every major currency.  There are many fundamental reasons why people claim this happened with the most common being the unwinding of the carry trade.  No matter what the reason all we care about is what the chart tells us.  Lets take a look at several of the JPY charts.  We will be looking at 1% box size point and figure charts, this gives us a longer term view to see if the major trend has really changed.

We have already taken a close look at the EUR/JPY on the post “Go long the EUR/JPY?“.  Now looking at the chart we can see that after breaking the trend it pulled back to make a higher bottom (bullish sign) and is now trying to make a new buy signal.  While I am not ready to go long the EUR/JPY just yet as I want to see a buy above the 21 ema, it does certainly show that the JPY trend may be changing if it can make the second buy signal above 121.

EUR/JPY

The AUD/JPY chart gives the most convincing chart that the trend has changed.  It just broke the trend line and has given a buy signal above the 21 EMA.  I would like to see one more buy signal above the trendline and then it will be time to go long the AUD/JPY.

AUDJPY

While the GBP/JPY chart is not as convincing it is useful to take a look at.  You can see that it has consistanly made higher bottoms now and just broke to the upside out of a triangle pattern.  All of those are bullish signals however all of this is happening below the trendline so we won’t consider going long.  This chart does show however that there are changes going on in the JPY.

GBPJPY

Last we look at the USD/JPY.  This chart is a perfect example of how well a point and figure trend line can hold.  The USD/JPY has bounced exactly to resistance at the trend line and right now all signals still point down but it would not take much of a move for all of that to change.  This is certainly something we need to keep our eyes on.

USDJPY

So has the overall trend of JPY changed?  Not yet, but it is at a very critical point and i would think within a short period of time we should find out if any of the other currencies can really break through and change thier overall trend against the JPY.  It looks right now like AUD has the best chance to make that happen.

Do you like our forex analysis?  Be sure to check out our managed forex account and our forex investing strategies.